Getting Started:

Viewing this portion of the site requires Java.  If you don't have it, you can get it here.

How to Enter Player Data:

How good are these players? Click "Compute Weighted Event Probabilities" to get an idea of the probability of each plate appearance outcome based on an autoregressive weighting scheme. (Previous seasons' results are given progressively less weight compared to recent ones.) You can change the weight to any value between 0 (which only looks at the players' 2005 statistics) and 1 (which looks at each player's career numbers).

After experimenting with the weight parameter, if you still don't like those probabilities, type in your own. Probabilities must sum to one, of course, but the program will normalize them internally, so you don't have to worry about having yours sum to 1.

After determining how likely each event is for each player, you're ready to optimize the batting order. Drag and drop the players to create your lineup on the left. Once you've settled on a lineup and filled in the event probabilities (the applet won't work if they're left blank), click "Compute Runs per 9 Innings" to see how many runs your lineup generates.


 
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Copyright 2005-2009 David H. Annis, Ph.D.
Last Modified October 25, 2009